Who's Ahead in the
4G Race? LTE versus Mobile WIMAX
The allure of betting on a longshot in a tight
race -- and seeing it play out -- never wanes for sports fans. In the race to 4G
that's heating up between two competing wireless networking standards, it would
be foolish to dismiss the Long Term Evolution (LTE) standard as the longshot
against its better-known rival, WiMAX. While WiMAX (define), or Worldwide
Interoperability for Microwave Access, is seen by industry experts as a few
strides ahead of LTE, the LTE standard could cross the finish line as the
end-all mobile network that users are eagerly awaiting. WiMAX and LTE (define)
are, in simple terms, Wi-Fi and GSM connectivity on steroids. What's at stake
with their burgeoning growth? Mobility nirvana tied to what pundits call 4G
technology -- always-on connectivity, real-time multimedia experiences and
robust applications without the dropped calls, lost data packets and the
all-too-common dead zone scenario users have today. One reason LTE may win the
race is that it continues to gain supporters. The latest Nortel Networks (NYSE:NT),
a longtime WiMAX advocate that just switched loyalties this month. Although it
is not deserting its WiMAX investments, the voice and data network equipment
provider is placing a bigger bet on LTE. It claims that WiMAX progress has
slowed. LTE, the natural progression of Global System for Mobile communications
(GSM) and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS), promises to make
everything from mobile-video sharing to music downloads faster. WiMAX, based on
the 802.16e standard, features a transmission speed more than five times faster
than current wireless networks. It lets users send huge data files from a
smartphone, switch from a mobile phone network to a LAN (define) without
redialing, share documents in real-time videoconferences and essentially
transport all the benefits of an office's networked PC to conduct business on
the road. Both networking standards promise big improvements over the
often-pokey speeds current users are stuck with. "It's like how we went from
local calling to cellular calling, or from dial-up to broadband access," Carmi
Levy, senior VP, strategic consulting, AR Communications, told InternetNews.com.
With LTE, there's an ease of building out the network from its GSM base compared
to the significant infrastructure buildout that WiMAX has taken thus far.
However, WiMAX deployments are already up and running while LTE's formal debut
is still two to three years out. For Nortel, the change of heart on WiMAX could
be that WiMAX adoption expectations are a bit bleak at the moment, despite
momentum by leading carriers. A recent Chadwick Martin Bailey survey reported
that while 69 percent of enterprises use Wi-Fi for data access and 48.2 percent
use 3G cellular service, a whopping 53.5 percent have no plans to move to WiMAX.
Analysts say the 4G evolution is a race, but wide open beyond the LTE and WiMAX
camps. Plus, consider the simple fact that there is no official standard 4G
definition as yet. "We don't really know what 4G technology will arrive because
it's an evolution at this point," Jeff Kagan, telecom analyst, told
InternetNews.com. "Right now there are more questions than answers," Kagan said,
adding that "I don't see a winner or loser. It'll just be more of what we have
now." So who are the main groups behind the two networking approaches?
The LTE
Camp
AT&T, the leading carrier, is committed to LTE, as are Verizon
Wireless and Nortel. AT&T believes LTE is "better suited" than WiMAX
when it comes to mobility, according to spokesman Warner May. "It
provides advancements and a graceful transition from 3G
technologies," he added. The fact that AT&T relies on precursor GSM
networking standards is one reason for the move, though adoption is
"tied to a whole bunch of issues," said May. "LTE will have a
healthy system and is the leading technology." A carrier's current
technology and future available spectrum are drivers in what route
carriers are taking, according to pundits. "The tilt to LTE or WiMAX
is tied to the state of a carrier's network and what they can
leverage," noted Levy. Future services, such as speedier broadband
connectivity over today's DSL and cable modem capabilities, are also
determining where the carriers place their investment bets. "For
AT&T, voice calls are still a priority, while Verizon is intent on
maintaining a strong wireless business so they're going to stick
with what's funneling the majority of revenue on their installed
based," Jack Gold, principal analyst for research firm J.Gold
Associates, told InternetNews.com. "Nothing is going to go away and
true mobile ubiquity isn't going to arrive until at least 2012,"
said Gold.
The WiMAX
Camp
One carrier with a big stake in WiMAX is Sprint-Nextel (NYSE: S),
the fourth largest telecommunications vendor in terms of subscribers
(even though it boasts the largest network). Sprint points to a
growing user base of WiMAX as one of its appealing features right
now. WiMAX subscribers are predicted to increase worldwide from 3.40
million to 27 million by 2011, according to a January 2007, Yankee
Group report. Sprint CEO Dan Hesse, speaking at this week's NXTcomm
trade show, stated "mobile's best days may still be ahead with data
usage on the rise." He described WiMAX as "wireless at rocket
speed", noting Sprint has a two-year head start ahead of
competitors. Just last month, Sprint announced it was joining forces
again with former partner Clearwire (NASDAQ: CLWR) in a $14.5
billion joint venture to create a national WiMAX carrier. The
venture also involves Intel, Google, Comcast, Time Warner Cable and
Bright House Networks. This follows Sprint's announcement in August
2006 that it would deploy the nation's first WiMAX network using the
company's 2.5GHz spectrum holdings, which reach an estimated 85
percent of the households in the top 100 U.S. markets. The carrier
has also formed an infrastructure development ecosystem called Xohm
(pronounced ‘Zoam’) with charter partners Intel, Samsung, Motorola
and Nokia. "Xohm is the removal of the barriers to the seamless use
of the wireless Web, making it fast, easy and affordable for a whole
new group of users," John Polivka, Sprint Nextel, Xohm public
relations, told InternetNews.com. Sprint Nextel selected WiMAX
because it was the best fit against the company’s four critical
metrics: time to market, performance, business model support and
ecosystem, said Polivka. "Wireless data is the sweet spot. This is a
new era of social networking and user-generated content," said
Polivka.
It's All
About The 4G Destination
The fact that Motorola (NYSE: MOT) is a member of Xohm, however,
doesn't mean it's not an LTE fan as well. The beleaguered handset
maker has decided to hedge its bets and throw some support at both
technologies, even though it clearly favors WiMAX at this point.
Motorola has spent about half a billion dollars on WiMAX chips and
devices, making it a leading global WiMAX technology player,
according to Fred Wright, Motorola senior VP, cellular networks and
WiMAX. It currently has 19 contracts for commercial WiMAX systems in
16 countries, and has already shipped more than 3,600 access points
and 120,000 CPEs and PC cards. "WiMAX devices are the last piece to
happen," Wright told InternetNews.com. In this week alone, Motorola
issued three WiMAX-related press releases. One touted that its WiMAX
WAP 25400 base station achieved the WiMAX Forum Certified seal of
approval, which puts Motorola among the first to have products earn
certification. The WiMAX Forum plans to certify more than 100 mobile
WiMAX products this year. Wright said both technologies are very
good but that "WiMAX is here and now and helping to accelerate the
commercial LTE."
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